Review Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by PHILIP E. TETLOCK, DAN GARDNER
Having the ability to look into the future is a beneficial trait in trading and investing, especially if you have the right abilities to forecast it. As Philip Tetlock once said, experts’ forecasts are only one step away from the chance. This book examines the factors of good and bad predictions and why some fail and some succeed.
Authors Tetlock and Gardner look into decades’ worth of research to pinpoint which finance experts make the right predictions. They are called superforecasters.
This book provides readers with insight from some of the most significant aspects of forecasting. It talks about various finance experts and the forecasts they have made—and whether these predictions proved to be true or not.
One essential advice the authors impart to the readers is to state forecasts in numbers, as this gives a clearer perspective on the facts given. The authors also tell readers to know when to differ general statistics to aspects that need specific forecasting.
About the Author
PHILIP E. TETLOCK is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He conducts psychology and political science appointments, as well as in the Wharton School of Business. He has authored a few books on finance and politics. He is a co-leader alongside his wife, Barbara Mellers, of the Good Judgment Project.
DAN GARDNER is a journalist. He has authored several finance books and is known in the trading industry.
Table of Contents
- An Optimistic Skeptic
- Illusions of Knowledge
- Keeping Score
- Perpetual Beta
- The Leader’s Dilemma
- Are They Really So Super?
- What’s Next?
Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters